"15th Five-Year Plan" Detailed Analysis: Opportunity Map for Global Partners in China's Next Five Years

01 Planning Blueprint: Direction and Path

From "Quantity" Growth to "Quality" Improvement, Efficiency Optimization, and Sustainable Development

The core guiding ideology of the "15th Five-Year Plan" is very clear—leading the overall situation with high-quality development. This means China's development focus is shifting from "quantity" growth to "quality" improvement, efficiency optimization, and sustainable development.

From the perspective of specific goals, the "15th Five-Year Plan" will cover seven major aspects: economic development, scientific and technological innovation, reform and opening up, cultural construction, people's lives, Beautiful China, and national security. Several core quantitative goals are particularly worth noting: maintaining economic growth within a reasonable range, steadily improving total factor productivity, and achieving carbon peak goals by 2030 as scheduled. (Regarding specific target setting during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, please pay close attention to the subsequent release of the "Outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of the People's Republic of China and 2035 Long-term Goals".)

Behind the plan is the change in China's economic development stage. China is in a critical stage of crossing from a middle-income country to a high-income country, and simply pursuing high-speed growth is no longer the primary task.

Faced with practical challenges such as "bottlenecks existing in domestic circulation" and "arduous tasks of old-to-new driver replacement," the plan proposes a systematic solution.

02 Industrial Re-engineering: How New Quality Productive Forces Reshape Supply Chains

China's manufacturing industry is undergoing a profound transformation from "big" to "strong." The "15th Five-Year Plan" places "building a modern industrial system" at the top of its tasks, and this transformation is unfolding along three clear paths.

03 Opening Up Upgrade: From Trade Channels to Rule Alignment

During the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, the underlying logic of China's opening up is undergoing fundamental changes. These changes directly relate to how global partners interact with the Chinese market.

04 Innovation Driven: Technological Change in Open Ecosystem

Scientific and technological innovation is placed at the core of the "15th Five-Year Plan." In the planning text, "technology" is mentioned 46 times and "innovation" is emphasized 61 times, fully demonstrating the core position of scientific and technological innovation in national development.

05 Green Transition: Market Restructuring by Low-Carbon Economy

Green is the distinct background color of the "15th Five-Year Plan" development. The plan clearly states that it will "take carbon peak and carbon neutrality as the driving force" to coordinately advance carbon reduction, pollution reduction, green expansion, and growth.

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  Energy Structure Transformation Accelerating: China plans to initially build a clean, low-carbon, safe, and efficient new energy system during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, achieving about 25% non-fossil energy consumption. This means wind, solar, and hydrogen energy will usher in large-scale development.
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  Green Production and Lifestyle Formation: By the end of the "15th Five-Year Plan," China expects green and low-carbon lifestyles to become the public's conscious choice. This nationwide green transformation will spawn a huge market for green products and services. (The green trade system has been established at the legal level. The new Foreign Trade Law clearly states "accelerating the establishment of a green trade system" and encourages green and low-carbon product imports and exports.)
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  Resource Utilization of "New Three" Retired Equipment: As "new three" products like new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic products enter retirement, how to handle these devices in an environmentally friendly way becomes a new issue and creates new industrial opportunities.

06 Supply Chain Restructuring: Regionalization and Resilience Enhancement

The global supply chain landscape is undergoing profound adjustments, and these changes will become more obvious during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period. China's supply chain is restructuring toward diversification, regionalization, and greater resilience.

Supply chain regionalization characteristics are becoming increasingly prominent. With the deepening of regional trade agreements like RCEP, supply chains are shifting from globalization to regionalization. Chinese companies are accelerating capacity layout in "Global South" countries to reduce dependence on single markets.

Supply chain diversification has become an inevitable choice. China is shifting from the past "both ends abroad" model to a supply chain layout based on the "dual circulation" new development pattern. This means supply chains pay more attention to the balance between domestic and international markets and enhance autonomous controllability.

Enhancing industrial and supply chain resilience and security is an important consideration during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period. China will focus on optimizing regional industrial layouts, enhancing industrial chains' autonomous controllability and risk resistance to cope with external uncertainties such as geopolitics. (Logistics is key to supply chain resilience. The 25 cross-border trade facilitation measures replicated and promoted nationwide aim to improve logistics efficiency. Refer to relevant announcements from the General Administration of Customs.)